Alaska aurora prediction

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What do the Aurora prediction symbols mean?

Our own prediction symbol shows the possibility for aurora sightings. The values are based on scientific measurements, weather and lighting conditions. E.g if it is dark, a clear sky and good solar activity it will calculate higher possibilities for an aurora sighting. Values are none, low, good or high.

What is the Aurora forecast indicator?

This Aurora forecast indicator (known as “planetary K-index”), is simply a scale to measure the geomagnetic activity that is directly related to Northern Lights visibility. Here you can learn a little more about what causes the northern lights.

Can scientists predict when and where Aurora will occur?

Scientists can predict when and where there will be aurora, but with less confidence than they can predict the regular weather. The ultimate energy source for the aurora is the solar wind. When the solar wind is calm, there tends to be minimal aurora; when the solar wind is strong and perturbed,…

Why can’t I see the aurora borealis in Alaska?

Sunlight prevents viewing the aurora during the summer at high latitudes. The skies at night are simply too bright as the sun climbs in the sky until the June 21 solstice and then descends. Here in Fairbanks, at about latitude 64.8, our aurora viewing “season” is August 21 to April 21.

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How far in advance can aurora be predicted?

As a naturally occurring phenomenon, the appearance of the Northern Lights is notoriously difficult to predict any further in advance than about two hours before it happens.


Will 2022 be a good year for aurora borealis?

“There will continue to be aurora viewing opportunities in 2022,” Steenburgh said. “The solar cycle is indeed ramping up and as solar activity increases, so do the chances for Earth-directed blobs of plasma, the coronal mass ejections, which drive the geomagnetic storms and aurora.”


Can auroras be predicted?

The KP index is the most common way to forecast the Northern Lights, and you can use it both for short-term and long-term Aurora prediction. This Aurora forecast indicator (known as “planetary K-index”), is simply a scale to measure the geomagnetic activity that is directly related to Northern Lights visibility.


What is the best month to see Northern Lights in Alaska?

BEST TIME TO SEE THE NORTHERN LIGHTS IN ALASKA The northern lights occur all four seasons of the year, although they are harder to see under the Midnight Sun. The best time to see the northern lights in Alaska is between August and April, when less daylight leads to darker night skies.


How can I see the Northern Lights in 2022?

11 Best Places to See the Northern Lights in 2022Fairbanks, Alaska. Fairbanks, Alaska has so many winter sports, it’s the perfect place for active travelers (or spectators)! … Yellowknife, Canada. … Manitoba, Canada. … Cherry Springs State Park. … Ilulissat, Greenland. … Iceland. … Sumburgh. … TromsøMore items…•


When can you see the Northern Lights in Alaska in 2022?

So the season stretches from late August through to late April. Winter being the best season is a myth. You can spot absolutely stunning aurora borealis displays in September or October, as well as March or April. The best time to look for the shimmering lights is between midnight and 2 am.


How can I capture the Northern Lights on my Iphone?

Turn on Stars Mode (a green icon means it’s turned on). You’re now ready to take a photo – just tap the shutter and wait about 15 seconds. If the lights are faint, try turning on Light Boost too, it can really help bring out them out. The “sun icon” button turns Light Boost on.


How long does aurora borealis last?

Anywhere from 10 minutes to all night long, depending on the magnitude of the incoming solar wind.


Is there an app for Northern Lights?

My Aurora Forecast is the best app for seeing the Northern Lights.


Do the Northern Lights happen every night?

Auroras happen in every month but because they’re impossible to see against the super-light late night summer skies far up north, our trips to see them tend to take place when the night skies are properly dark.


Can you see the Northern Lights every night in Alaska?

Yes, you can see the northern lights, also known as the aurora borealis, from Anchorage – but not in the summer. The aurora actually occurs all year long, but the sky needs to be clear and dark to see it. Views are best from September to April.


When can you see the Northern Lights in Alaska in 2021?

When is the best time to see the northern lights? Fairbanks’ Aurora Season is from August 21 to April 21 and the aurora will be visible in Fairbanks an average of four out of five nights when the sky is clear and dark enough.


How to view Aurora?

General Aurora Viewing Information 1 Consider taking a tour and get an experts point of view. 2 Get more information about these locations on our blog. 3 Be resolute and patient as the aurora can be unpredictable. 4 Turn off headlights to minimize light pollution when parked at viewpoints. 5 In snowy conditions, all-wheel or 4-wheel drive vehicles are recommended.


How high is Cleary Summit?

Cleary Summit has an elevation of 2,233 ft/680 m and is located 20 miles/32 km from Fairbanks. It is a popular viewing area with multiple pull-outs. It is accessible but there are some very sharp turns and major elevation changes and in snowy conditions, an all-wheel or 4-wheel drive vehicle is recommended.


What is the highest point in Fairbanks?

Murphy Dome. Murphy Dome is the highest point close to Fairbanks at 2,877 ft/877 m and is located 25 miles/40 km from Fairbanks. You will find an accessible high viewpoint but there are some sharp turns as well as major elevation changes and in snowy conditions, an all-wheel or 4-wheel drive vehicle is recommended.


What is the best vehicle for snow?

In snowy conditions, all-wheel or 4-wheel drive vehicles are recommended.


Where is Aurora forecast data from?

Aurora forecast data from the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks


Where is Chena Lake in Fairbanks?

Chena Lake Recreation Area is a 2,000-acre/8 km 2 park located 17 miles/27 km from Fairbanks, just outside of the city of North Pole. The area offers lakes and trails easily accessible via well-maintained paved and gravel and dirt roads.


Is the Aurora Borealis visible in town?

Although the light show will be more vibrant a few miles out of town where it is dar ker the aurora borealis is visible in and around town too. Many accommodations offer wake-up calls when the northern lights are out. Just ask front desk personnel at the time of booking or check-in.


Where to see aurora borealis in Alaska?

Fairbanks. The most popular place for viewing the rare and spectacular phenomenon in Alaska is Fairbanks. Even though it’s located just below the Arctic Circle, 180 mi (290 km) south to be more precise, the aurora borealis appears quite frequently there.


When to view aurora borealis?

Winter being the best season is a myth. You can spot absolutely stunning aurora borealis displays in September or October, as well as March or April. The best time to look for the shimmering lights is between midnight and 2 am.


Where to see the northern lights?

The flickering lights can be spotted anywhere in the state, including its largest city of Anchorage and other places in the south. However, the number of displays there is dramatically fewer than in the north. The chances strengthen when going up the latitude. Therefore, the remote inland Alaskan Arctic and extreme north work the best.


What are the most beautiful things to see in Alaska?

Alaska. The northern lights or aurora borealis is one of the most amazing things to do in Alaska. Polar lights appear in the skies when charged solar particles interact with the atmosphere. The celestial show typically comes in a swirling array of green, while the most intense aurora gets a purple edge. The curious shapes range from curtains …


Which region is the best place to see polar lights?

Spanning under the “Auroral Oval,” Alaskan Arctic belongs to the world’s top locations to observe polar lights


Where to see the celestial lights?

Barrow (Utqiagvik) To maximize your chances of seeing celestial lights in all their beauty, go to the extreme north. The best choice is Barrow also called Utqiagvik. The northernmost town in the US is also home to the native Iñupiat Eskimo culture.


Where to see Cleary Summit Aurora?

A good place to head to in the vicinity is Cleary Summit Aurora Viewing Area, situated about 20 mi (32 km) north-east of Fairbanks. The area is easily accessible, offers a solid view of the horizon, and has parking, which is also convenient.


Why is it better to have less moonlight or more?

It can be helpful for there to be some moon because the partial moon will light up the landscape for your pictures. Strictly speaking, for viewing purposes only and not photography , it is better to have less moonlight than more. Too much moonlight can make it difficult to see quiet aurora displays with the naked eye.


What is the 27 day outlook?

27 Day Outlook. NOAA puts out the 27-day outlook. Any forecast more than three days out suffers severe ly in inaccuracy but if you are making long term plans and want a little help, check it out. It is made in UTC time which is 9 hours off from Alaska. This, and the fact that we care about night time solar winds, which straddle two calendar days, …


What does it mean when the ovation prime model is bright green?

When you see the predictive band of the Ovation Prime Model turn bright green, yellow, or better yet red, it means the odds of Aurora activity are very high. This is best used as a short term forecasting tool.


Is the moon below the horizon?

Unfortunately, a traditional moon calendar only answers question #3, the least important of the 3. The moon can be below the horizon for an entire night of aurora viewing and be as much as 80-90% illuminated and can be up in the sky all night long with 1% illumination. Further down on this page we have provided links for our custom moon calendar that answer these questions from an aurora viewers perspective in more detail.


Can you see a half moon?

You can actually see a 50% illuminated moon as it is setting in this photo. It really nicely lights up the mountainside and moments later it set leaving the landscape in darkness. Pro tip: having a near half moon that sets between 11 pm and 1 am can give you the best of both worlds, moonlight and no moonlight in the same tour.


What is Aurora app?

An Aurora App is the easiest way to forecast Northern Lights.


What is the KP index?

The KP index is the most common way to forecast the Northern Lights , and you can use it both for short-term and long-term Aurora prediction. This Aurora forecast indicator (known as “planetary K-index”), is simply a scale to measure the geomagnetic activity that is directly related to Northern Lights visibility.


What does KP6 mean?

KP6 indicates a solar storm of grade G 2, KP7 means a solar storm of grade G3, KP8 means a solar storm of grade G4 and KP9 solar storm of grade G5, the maximum ever recorded. Long-Term Northern Lights forecast – Long-term KP Index. It is difficult to predict the Northern Lights over the long term.


What color is Aurora?

The intensity of the Aurora is shown in different colors from green (faint/normal activity) to yellow (higher activity) to red (very strong activity). This Aurora forecast is also known as the NOAA Northern Lights forecast since it’s provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.


How far above the Aurora do you see the Northern Lights?

This model displays the Northern Lights forecast map around the Auroral oval zone, so if you’re inside the Northern Lights covered area or around 500 miles (800 km) above or below, you’ll have a chance of seeing the Aurora.


How far in advance can Auroras be forecast?

Coronal mass ejections, which cause most of the solar storms and, therefore, stronger Auroras, are forecast 15 days in advance, but their strength and shape can vary once they get closer to Earth.


What is the term for the period of less activity at the beginning and end of the solar cycle?

During this 11-year cycle, the sun has a period of less activity at the beginning and end of the cycle, called solar minimum, and a period of more activity in the middle of the cycle, also known as solar maximum.


What is the aurora oval?

The aurora oval can be understood as a huge ring above the earth’s geomagnetic North Pole. Too keep this simple the Ovation-Prime model show where the aurora will be visible. The Ovation model is actually the closest science has come to predict aurora in an accurate way.


What is Nowcast prediction?

Nowcast is a prediction of how the kp index will develop in the next few hours.


What is the most important thing to hunt for the Northern Lights?

After many years, we have learned there are a few things that are more important in the hunt for the Northern Lights. The most important thing is a cloudless sky. All measurements are only a prediction, and give no northern lights guarantee. (figures have a hoverable question mark with explanation) 2. 2. 4.


How fast does Bz need to be to get aurora?

Bz needs to drop – for aurora to appear. Speed from 250 and up can give nice movements in the sky


What is the purpose of the SUVI?

SUVI observations of solar flares and solar eruptions can provide early warning of possible impacts to Earth’s space environment and enable better forecasting of potentially disruptive events on the ground. (NOAA/NASA)


What are the green areas on the Aurora?

The green areas (Aurora Oval) mark the regions in which you have a good chance of observing the northern lights in the next half hour. Cameras that are within the dark area can show the polar lights if other conditions are good. Toggle between different maps and overlays in top corner on the map.


Is there a GFZ and NOAA speedometer?

We have combined alerts from NOAA and GFZ in the same speedometer. The outer bar shows the values from NOAA and the inner bar gives you the GFZ values.


What is the new version of the OVATION Prime model?

In 2020, NOAA SWPC implemented the new version of the OVATION Prime model into operations. This version has been dubbed OVATION 2020. The Auroral Forecast product is based on the OVATION Prime model developed by P. Newell at the Johns Hopkins, Applied Physics Laboratory.


What is the OVATION model?

The OVATION (Oval Variation, Assessment, Tracking, Intensity, and Online Nowcasting) model is an empirical model of the intensity of the aurora developed at the Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory by Patrick Newell and co-workers1. The model uses the solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field measured at the L1 orbit position at 1.6 million km (1 million miles) upstream from earth as input and calculates three types of electron precipitation and the proton precipitation which strongly correlate with the aurora. An estimate of aurora viewing probability can be derived by assuming a linear relationship to the intensity of the aurora. This relationship was validated by comparison with data from the Ultraviolet imager (UVI) instrument on the NASA Polar satellite (2).


What is the aurora?

The aurora is an indicator of the current geomagnetic storm conditions and provides situational awareness for a number of technologies. The aurora directly impacts HF radio communication and GPS/GNSS satellite navigation. It is closely related to the ground induce currents that impact electric power transition.


How long is the Aurora product forecast?

This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth.


Why do auroras turn red?

The green ovals turn red when the aurora is forecasted to be more intense. The sunlit side of Earth is indicated by the lighter blue of the ocean and the lighter color of the continents. Aurora can often be observed somewhere on Earth from just after sunset or just before sunrise.


What is the forecast lead time?

The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth. The two maps show the North and South poles of Earth respectively. The brightness and location of the aurora is typically shown as a green oval centered on Earth’s magnetic pole.


Who developed the ovation model?

Machol and Redmon (NCEI) developed the real-time ovation model. Viereck (SWPC) implemented the model and developed the graphical products to run in realtime to create aurora forecasts. In 2013, Newell upgraded the OVATION Prime model so that it would more accurately capture large geomagnetic storms.

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