Climate prediction winter 2017

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The Winter Outlook, which came out in November 2017 predicted a tilt in the odds towards warmer than average conditions across the southern United States (1) and stretching north along the East Coast. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains were slightly favored to be colder than average.

This year’s winter outlook forecasted higher chances for a drier-than-normal winter across the southern tier of the United States and higher chances for a wetter-than-normal winter across the northern United States—a generally La Niña-like pattern.Mar 22, 2018

Full
Answer

What happened to the weather in Arizona in 2017?

While extreme heat was certainly a major impact, the total number of 100 and 110 degree days in Phoenix and Yuma were not particularly unusual (ironically, both cities had exactly the same number of 100 & 110 degree days). The other predominant weather story in 2017 was the prolonged periods without rainfall.

How much snow does it usually snow in the winter?

These winters averaged 51.2 inches of snow which was just 0.7 inches less than the 1981-2010 normal of 51.9 inches. The snow total ranged from 28.4 inches (1975-76) to 70.5 inches (2011-12) – again, a large range.

What are the chances of a warmer or colder than normal weather?

Temperatures: Equal chances of warmer-than-normal, near-normal, and colder-than-normal. This is due to a lack of a strong climate signal and no clear temperature signal in the climate models.

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Was 2017 a warm winter?

At a Glance Winter 2016-17 was much warmer and wetter than average for parts of the United States, according to preliminary data compiled by the Southeast Regional Climate Center. One region, however, saw much colder temperatures than average, while a few areas reported one of the coldest winters on record.


Will 2022 be a rough winter?

Old Farmer’s Almanac Predicts Mild and Dry 2021-2022 Winter for California – Most of the U.S. Will Experience Bone-Chilling, Below-Average Temperatures.


What does La Nina mean for Minnesota winter?

La Niña events show about a 70 to 80 percent correlation historically with colder and snowier than average winters in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. They also have a bias toward milder-than-average fall weather.


What was the coldest day in 2007?

Coldest Temperature, Each Month, Winters 1887-88 to 2021-22YEARNOVFEB2009-1018-22008-091012007-0810-32006-077-663 more rows


What does the winter look like for 2021?

Winter temperatures are expected to range from near – to somewhat-below normal across the eastern-third of the nation, well below-normal over the Central US, and near-normal across the western US, especially in February.


Will it snow this year 2021?

There will be snow and cold temperatures as 2021 comes to an end, and more snow and even colder temperatures as 2022 begins, according to the National Weather Service.


Is 2021 an El Nino year?

(WSFA) – It’s back again! La Niña conditions have officially developed and are expected to remain in place through the entirety of winter 2021-2022. So what exactly does that mean? La Niña means we’re in the negative phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short.


Is El Nino or La Niña better for snow?

When this index is negative, it indicates a more amplified, colder and snowier pattern over our area. El Niño adds more moisture and storminess, but sometimes brings milder air as well. La Niña typically brings drier and milder conditions. Below are two scatter plot diagrams showing wintertime snowfall vs.


What is the winter forecast for Minnesota in 2021 2022?

The Farmers’ Almanac predicts the Minnesota 2021 winter forecast will have 57% fewer days of measurable precipitation in February, compared to January, but by March rainfall will be near normal. The winter solstice, starting on Tuesday, Dec.


Is January 2022 colder than normal?

January 2022 The average January temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 31.0 degrees F — 0.9 of a degree above the 20th-century average — ranking in the middle third of January months in the 128-year record.


What temperature would a human freeze instantly?

At 82 F (28 C) you can lose consciousness. Below 70 F (21 C), you are said to have profound hypothermia and death can occur, Sawka said.


What is the coldest year on record?

1983The world’s coldest temperature record, established on July 21, 1983, is held by the high-altitude weather station of Vostok, Antarctica. On that date, the temperature fell to -128.6 degrees Fahrenheit.


Temperature Outlook

Outlook for average winter temperature across the United States (large version shows Alaska and Hawaii) for December 2016–February 2017. Anywhere in the United States, there is always a chance that the average winter temperature will be near average, well above average, or well below average.


Precipitation Outlook

Outlook for average winter precipitation the United States (large version shows Alaska and Hawaii) for December 2016–February 2017. Anywhere in the United States, there is always a chance that the average winter precipitation will be near average, well above average, or well below average.


Drought Outlook

Drought outlook for the 2016-2017 winter (December-February) in the United States. NOAA Climate.gov map based on NWS Climate Prediction Center data.


Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature patterns

Difference from average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean in late September 2016, from the animation sequence in the 2016-17 Winter outlook video above. The frames for the entire sequence are available as a zip file.


Bottom Line for the Local Area..

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center ( CPC) forecast for the upcoming winter months of December-February:


Background..

A weak La Niña is favored to develop during the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere autumn (55-65%) and this weak La Niña is expected to continue into the winter of 2017-18. Due to this, the CPC winter temperature and precipitation outlooks are consistent with typical La Niña impacts.

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Standard Reminder: Probabilities Are Not Certainties


Cut to The Chase: What’s The Outlook For This Winter

  • Both the temperature and precipitation outlooks lean on typical La Niña impacts, particularly those of the past 30 years, and bear some resemblance to the outlooks issued for last winter (not surprisingly since the forecast guidance is similar – more on that below). In the image above, the winter precipitation outlook favors below-normal precipitat…

See more on climate.gov


Déjà Vu All Over Again?

  • Don’t worry if the preceding paragraphs seemed familiar. You’re not crazy. Regular readers may remember that last year at this time, we were also anticipating the emergence of La Niña later in the fall. Fast forward one year and, well, the situation doesn’t look much different. If La Niña were to develop this year, certain patterns of temperature and precipitation would be favored across t…

See more on climate.gov


Footnotes

  • (1) The terciles, technically, are the 33.33 and 66.67 percentile positions in the distribution. In other words, they are the boundaries between the lower and middle thirds of the distribution, and between the middle and upper thirds. These two boundaries define three categories: below-normal, near-normal and above-normal. In the maps, the CPC forecasts show the probability of t…

See more on climate.gov


Let’s Start with The Temperatures

  • The Winter Outlook, which came out in November 2017predicted a tilt in the odds towards warmer than average conditions across the southern United States (1) and stretching north along the East Coast. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains were slightly favored to be colder than average. The Outlook was most confident in above no…

See more on climate.gov


What About precipitation?

  • Precipitation is usually harder to forecast than temperature, as one big storm can have a large impact on the seasonal totals. This leads to a much noisier observed pattern than temperature. This year’s winter outlook forecasted higher chances for a drier-than-normal winter across the southern tier of the United States and higher chances for a wetter-than-normal winter across th…

See more on climate.gov


So Were You Guys Wrong, Or Were You Right?

  • Both… and neither! This outlook had more hits than misses (yay!), but there were still misses (boo!). It all sort of depended on where you lived. That is the nature of these winter outlooks. But in figuring out just how good a winter outlook is overall (or whether to trust it), you cannot just look at the one (or two) times a winter outlook was good (or bad). That’d be like proclaiming you…

See more on climate.gov


What Actually Happened This Winter then? La Nina? Other stuff?

  • Lots of things. For one (and a reminder that this is the ENSO blog), there has been a La Niña active over the Pacific Ocean. And as we havecovered numerous times on the blog, La Niña can influence the winter over the United States by impacting the jet stream and the placement of high and low pressures over the mid-latitudes. But we can’t blame EVERYTHINGon La Niña, and no se…

See more on climate.gov


Wait, Why Then Do You Talk So Much About Enso When Making The Outlook?

  • Basically, because it is the one influence that is actually predictable a season ahead of time. We know that other things will impact the winter temperature and precipitation patterns besides ENSO. But we don’t know exactly HOW those other atmospheric features will behave more than a couple weeks in advance. In contrast, we usually know what phase it will be—El Niño or La Niña…

See more on climate.gov


Footnotes

  • (1) When we say “well above” or “well below” average, we mean in the top or bottom third of observed winter average temperatures or precipitation during the climatological reference period, which is currently 1981-2010. This means we can’t get a good grade on our forecast with an observed seasonal outcome that is just barely above or below average. (2) If you’ve forgotten w…

See more on climate.gov

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