Election prediction sites

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How do I create an election forecast for 2024?

Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed it into a web page.

How does your model predict the election?

Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day. If you want to see a snapshot of what voters are thinking right now — with no fancy modeling — check out the national polls.

Where can you find presidential polling information online?

270toWin, like FiveThirtyEight, does a good job of presenting presidential polling information in an interactive and engaging way, but this site comes more in handy once the general election kicks off.

How many electoral votes will it take to win the 2020 election?

It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2020 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2020 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed it into a web page.

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Why are Maine and Nebraska shown separately?

Maine and Nebraska’s congressional districts are shown separately because those states split their Electoral College votes, allotting some to the statewide winner and some to the winner of each district.


Is there a 10 percent chance of winning?

A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it doesrain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)


Is there a chance of polling error?

Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to statewhen it happens. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal errorin his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump’s support is why he still has a path to win reelection.


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Who will be the GOP nominee in 2024?

That’s another reason why the GOP may look elsewhere in 2024. UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024.


How old is Biden when he runs for president?

The thinking is that Biden may opt to let Harris take the reins in the next Presidential election cycle, due to the fact that Biden will be 81-years-old three years from now. That said, in late March 2021 Biden said that his plan is to run for re-election in 2024.


Who was the first female presidential candidate?

Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.


Will Harris be nominated for president in 2024?

If the Democrats do nominate Harris in 2024, it will be historic for other reasons, however. No major party has ever nominated an African-American woman for president, for example. Harris’ nomination could come in the same year as a historic nomination by the other party.


Will Biden run for reelection in 2024?

That’s usually following a two-term president, however. As 2024 will come at the tail end of Joe Biden’s first term and he may run for reel ection as the incumbent, that typical wisdom may prove unreliable. Watch candidates’ fundraising and polling as the cycle nears.

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