Nuggets vs dallas prediction

image

What time does the Denver Nuggets play the Dallas Mavericks?

The Dallas Mavericks (18-18) host the Denver Nuggets (18-16) Monday at the American Airlines Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets. Denver has won three consecutive road games, going 2-1 against the spread (ATS).

What time does the Mavericks vs Nuggets tip-off?

Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets. Dallas rallied back from a 20-point first-half deficit to beat the San Antonio Spurs Thursday 104-99 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites.

Is Dallas going under the total as a favorite against Denver?

Also, Dallas has gone Under the total in its past seven games as a favorite and Denver have gone Under the total in four of its past five games overall.

Are the Nuggets a home favorite against the Mavericks?

Also, the Nuggets are just 30-33-2 ATS as a home favorite over that span. “LEAN” to the UNDER 215.5 (-112) for a half unit only because we are getting to the party late since the Mavericks-Nuggets opened with a 218.5-point total, but the market has steamed it down to the current number.

image


Nuggets – Mavericks preview and analysis

Mavericks: won three of four; won 95-86 at Thunder on Sunday
Luka Doncic is back, and so might be the Dallas Mavericks at this rate.
For the first time in what seems like forever, the Mavericks will have Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis playing together when they host the Denver Nuggets on Monday.
The Mavs had their superstar make his return on Sunday in a 95-86 win on the road against the shorthanded Oklahoma City Thunder, who did not have star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander due to health and safety protocols.
This was Doncic’s first game since he himself was in COVID protocol, also while rehabbing an ankle injury that forced him to miss 10 games in total.


Prediction

At first it was surprising to see Dallas lay the 2.5 points on the SEGABABA, but Doncic gets another game to get into game shape; Porzingis will be fully rested, and the Nuggets still aren’t at full strength and won’t be for quite some time. The Mavs need a win and need to start stringing some together. This is the time. Mavs by 13


Betting trends

The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in the last six off one day rest.
The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss.
The under is 7-0 in the last seven following a straight-up win for the Mavericks.


Key injuries

Don’t miss our champion handicappers’ free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Denver Nuggets – Dallas Mavericks prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NBA projections and previews.


Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Predictions

After finishing fifth in the West with a record of 42-30 last year, Dallas kicked off the new season in incredibly frustrating fashion, as the Mavericks scored just 87 points on 33% FG and 30% 3FG during Luka Doncic and company’s somewhat stunning blowout loss to Atlanta on opening night (L, 113-87).


Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Head-to-Head

Dallas won two-of-three regular-season matchups against the Nuggets last year, with both the Mavericks’ victories during that timeframe surprisingly coming on the road in Denver.


Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Conclusion

After posting back-to-back double-digit losses against the Cavaliers and Jazz, the Nuggets will head into their fifth matchup of the new season as narrow-favorites over the visiting Mavericks – marking just the second time Dallas has been an underdog this year.


Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Trends

Denver has gone UNDER the point total in three of its last four games.


Season Record

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Ben Burns has made an EPIC $101K (10*) HOOPS! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.


Denver Nuggets Analysis

The Nuggets are coming into this game with an 8-4 record overall and they are 2-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game.


Dallas Mavericks Analysis

The Mavericks are coming into this game with an 8-4 record overall and they are 5-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They have won 4 of their last 5 games and are coming into this one off of a win in their last game.


Nuggets vs Mavericks Prediction

The Mavericks are coming into this game as a 4.5 point favorite with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mavs got off to a slow start but they have been playing much better in their recent games and that is thanks to Porzingis being back in the lineup.


Key Injuries

Denver Nuggets: M. Porter Jr. (PF) Out indefinitely – Back injury. V. Cancar (SF) Out indefinitely – Hip injury. J. Murray (SG) Out indefinitely – Knee injury.


Notable Quotes

“That definitely was a key point. Bones has extreme confidence. He shoots into a big basket. He’s not afraid and I think that’s what the veteran players love about him. He’s talented. He’s young. He’s a work in progress but he competes.” – Michael Malone on Bones Hyland after their win against the Hawks on Friday night.


Statistical Leaders

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures.


Denver Nuggets Preview

The Denver Nuggets have shown their heart and resilience all season long. [Photo: D’ Deporte]


Key Player – Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic leads the entire NBA in several advanced metrics. He tops the league in PER, Win Share, BPM and VORP. In short, his importance to the Denver Nuggets is almost out of this world. Seeing the raw numbers does not even do justice to how impressive he has been playing this season.


Denver Nuggets Predicted Lineup

G – Facundo Campazzo | G – Austin Rivers | F – Will Barton | F – Aaron Gordon | C – Nikola Jokic


Dallas Mavericks Preview

The Dallas Mavericks could have Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis against the Denver Nuggets. [Photo: Sky Sports]


Key Player – Luka Doncic

Despite playing just a little over 30 minutes, Doncic’s impact was very evident. He finished with 14 points, nine rebounds and 10 assists even without basketball activity for a few weeks. The Dallas Mavericks expect him to be a little rusty after a long spell on the injury report.


Dallas Mavericks Predicted Lineup

G – Luka Doncic | G – Jalen Brunson | F – Dorian Finney-Smith | F – Kristaps Porzingis | C – Dwight Powell


Nuggets vs Mavericks Match Prediction

The Denver Nuggets are no strangers to adversity, so facing the Dallas Mavericks with a depleted lineup is not going to faze them. However, if Kristaps Porzingis returns and Luka Doncic isn’t gassed before the fourth quarter, the Mavericks could defend their home court with a win.


Money line

BET the MAVERICKS (+102) for 1 unit because there’s a good chance the Nuggets won’t rush Jokic back for this game and Dallas won last year’s season series vs. Denver with Jokic in the lineup for all three meetings.


Against the spread

PASS since the Mavericks +1.5 (-107) doesn’t offer much insurance for our Dallas money line wager. For what it’s worth, the Mavs have the second-best cover rate in road games since the beginning of 2019 at 44-28-2 ATS. Also, the Nuggets are just 30-33-2 ATS as a home favorite over that span.


Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Preview

The Denver Nuggets got off to a terrible start to the season, with one win and four losses. However, after that, the team improved: two wins in a row. Now the Nuggets are in 8th place in the table, which is clearly not the result that the team’s fans are expecting. Michael Porter Jr.


Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Head to Head

Last season the teams had three H2H games. They played the first game on 30/10/19. In that game, the Dallas Mavericks won with a score of 109 – 106. The second game was played on 09/01/20. In that game, the Denver Nuggets won with a score of 107 – 106. The third game was played on 12/03/20.


Denver Nuggets Team Defense Preview

Their defensive efficiency is 109.1, which means they have an above average defense relative to other teams in the NBA. Now that we know what the overall defense looks like, it is time to understand why this defense is the way it is.
They are an average team when it comes to the shot quality of their opponents.


Denver Nuggets Team Offense Preview

Their offensive efficiency is 109.3, which makes them a below average offense in the NBA and that means there is room for improvement, but will they actually improve? Now that we know what the overall offense looks like, it is time to understand why this offense is the way it is.


Dallas Mavericks Team Defense Preview

Their defensive efficiency is 108.5, which means they have an above average defense relative to other teams in the NBA. This analysis would be woefully incomplete without going into further detail aside from just a defensive efficiency rating.
They are an average team when it comes to the shot quality of their opponents.


Dallas Mavericks Team Offense Preview

Their offensive efficiency is 109.3, which makes them a below average offense in the NBA and that means there is room for improvement, but will they actually improve? This analysis would be woefully incomplete without going into further detail aside from just an offensive efficiency rating. This is a team that likes to play grinders.


The Denver Nuggets Roster

The Players to Watch for Denver Nuggets
Aaron Gordon 6-8 235 PF
He is an important offensive option on this team this season.
There is nothing special regarding his shot selection inside the perimeter. He is not considered a frequent three point shooter.


The Dallas Mavericks Roster

The Players to Watch for Dallas Mavericks
Dorian Finney-Smith 6-7 220 PF
He is a general rotation player on this team. Nothing too special thus far.
He does not attack the rim as much as he should. There is nothing special regarding his shot selection on the perimeter.


Nuggets-Mavericks Current Form-Last Game

After losing four out of their first five games start the season, the Nuggets have completely flipped the script in recent weeks – now winning and covering in four of their last five games, bringing Denver’s record up to 9-7 on the year.


Kristaps Porzingis – Over 8.5 Total Rebounds (-110)

Since returning from injury and assuming a typical minutes load (25+ minutes), Porzingis has grabbed eight or more boards in five straight games while averaging 9.6 rebounds across that stretch.


Nuggets-Mavericks Prediction

The Nuggets come into this game bearing all the momentum, following back-to-back overtime wins in Phoenix this past weekend and victories against Western Conference opponents in four of their previous five contests.


What you need to know about the Mavericks

While not quite a landslide, the game between the Mavericks and the San Antonio Spurs this past Friday was still a pretty decisive one as Dallas wrapped it up with a 123-109 win on the road.


What you need to know about the Nuggets

Meanwhile, the Portland Trail Blazers typically have all the answers at home, but on Sunday Denver proved too difficult a challenge. The Nuggets made easy work of the Trail Blazers, rattling off a 124-95 victory. It was another big night for reigning NBA MVP Nikola Jokic, who had 28 points, nine assists, and nine rebounds.


How to make Mavericks vs. Nuggets picks

The model has simulated Mavericks vs. Nuggets 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning over on the point total, and it’s also generated a point spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Nuggets vs Mavs pick at SportsLine.

image

Leave a Comment