Was Hillary Clinton leading in the polls?
Our model of the polls suggests Clinton was very likely leading . (In >99% of simulations, Clinton led Trump.) Click a choice to show or hide it on the chart. This chart shows the results of polls that offered Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton as the only named options.
What is the national polling average for the 2016 presidential election?
National polling average based on four-way race (%) 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul 1, 2016 Nov 8 Aug Sep Oct 42.2 Trump 45.5 Clinton 42.2 Trump 45.5 Clinton. The chart above displays the two leading presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump.
Which presidential candidates are offered as the only options in polls?
This chart shows the results of polls that offered Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton as the only named options. Some surveys offered respondents an “other” option. View the chart for a Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson matchup here.
How does our model predict the popular vote?
Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident. Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes. Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast.
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How many electoral votes do you need to win the White House?
A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here’s where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are farthest left, Trump’s farthest right — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.
How do win probabilities come from?
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times , which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
What is the tipping point chance?
Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner.