In the case of Irma, computer-based simulations used to predict Irma’s track were remarkably consistent over a week-long period. Both the Global Forecast System and the European model predicted Irma to move northwestward, passing north of Puerto Rico and Cuba before curving northward into the Florida Peninsula. The consistency of Irma’s track forecast allowed Florida to declare a state of emergency an unprecedented six days in advance, providing ample time for residents to prepare for …
Can we predict hurricane Irma’s path?
Irma intensified to a category-5 level once again that evening, with top winds of 160 MPH, as it approached the northern coast of Cuba. Irma moved west along or just inland from the northern coast of Cuba on September 9 th. This interaction with land disrupted Irma’s structure a bit, as a hurricane requires plenty of deep warm water beneath the storm’s center to maintain the …
What are the key uncertainties in the Hurricane Irma forecast?
IRMA Graphics Archive: 5-day Forecast Track,Initial Wind Field and Watch/Warning Graphic. Legacy Cone. 3-day no line. 3-day with line. 5-day no line.
How successful were Hurricane Irma’s 5-day track forecasts?
Aug 30, 2018 · In the case of Irma, computer-based simulations used to predict Irma’s track were remarkably consistent over a week-long period. Both the Global Forecast System and the European model predicted Irma to move northwestward, passing north of Puerto Rico and Cuba before curving northward into the Florida Peninsula. The consistency of Irma’s track forecast …
What happened to Hurricane Irma’s structure?
Irma continued to gradually strengthen over the next several days as it tracked generally westward across the tropical Atlantic. By the time Hurricane Irma struck Barbuda in the northern Leeward Islands around 2am on Wednesday, September 6 th, it was a Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph winds. Five hours later, the eye of Irma moved over St. Martin, still with 185 mph …
What is Hurricane Irma’s projected path?
The storm is projected to move north-northwest over the next 24 hours and along the West Coast. It’s expected to make landfall in the Keys at daybreak Sunday. It will reach Naples and Fort Myers during the day. North Florida and the Panhandle will see tropical storm winds starting at 8 a.m. Monday.Sep 9, 2017
What is the 2021 prediction for hurricanes?
At the beginning of the season, NOAA predicted 13-20 named storms and 6-10 hurricanes. They also projected 3-5 major hurricanes (hurricanes of category 3 strength or stronger). Scientists at NOAA said there was a 60% chance that Hurricane Season 2021 would feature above-normal activity.Sep 14, 2021
How accurate is hurricane path prediction?
No model consistently beats the forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center. The average NHC five-day forecast track today is roughly as accurate as their two-day forecast was 30 years ago, Truchelut said.Jun 30, 2021
Was Irma the biggest hurricane?
It broke the record for the longest of any cyclone in the world since 1932 to maintain that intense of winds — for 37 hours straight and it spent three consecutive days as a category 5 hurricane. Irma had seven total landfalls from September 6th through September 10th.Sep 10, 2021
Will there be a lot of hurricanes in 2021?
Experts from the NOAA, the United Kingdom’s Met Office, Colorado State University, The Weather Channel and others all predicted an above-average season ranging from nine to 20 named storms, six to ten hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.Dec 6, 2021
What is the strongest hurricane in 2021?
2021 Atlantic hurricane seasonLast system dissipatedNovember 7, 2021Strongest stormNameSam• Maximum winds155 mph (250 km/h) (1-minute sustained)16 more rows
Is it possible to predict precisely the location of a hurricane 24 hours in advance?
Once a hurricane has formed, it can be tracked. Scientists can usually predict its path for 3-5 days in advance. A hurricane’s possible trajectory is usually represented as a cone, which shrinks over time as the error in the prediction decreases.
How early can hurricanes be predicted?
Scientists simply cannot predict hurricanes early enough for cities to be completely prepared for it to make landfall. There is no certainty in the position of a hurricane until it is too late to respond.Dec 15, 2021
How are hurricane paths predicted?
Satellites, reconnaissance aircraft, Ships, buoys, radar, and other land-based platforms are important tools used in hurricane tracking and prediction. While a tropical cyclone is over the open ocean, remote measurements of the storm’s intensity and track are made primarily via satellites.
How fast was Irma moving?
Hurricane Irma made landfall over the southern Florida mainland around 1 p.m. local time Sunday, Sept. 10 as a Category 3 storm, packing winds of more than 110 miles per hour.Aug 1, 2018
What is the number 1 strongest hurricane?
Hurricane Camille of 1969 had the highest wind speed at landfall, at an estimated 190 miles per hour when it struck the Mississippi coast. This wind speed at landfall is the highest ever recorded worldwide.Nov 27, 2021
How long did Irma last?
August 30, 2017 – September 14, 2017Hurricane Irma / Date
What is Hurricane Irma?
Hurricane Irma was a classic Cape Verde hurricane that will long be remembered for its severity and wide-ranging impacts to several islands in the Caribbean Sea and Florida. Like many of the most notorious Atlantic hurricanes, Irma began as a weak wave of low pressure accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms which emerged off the west African coast on August 27th, near the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (Fig. 1). Such disturbances move off the African coast every few days during August and September, however, most of them fail to develop into tropical cyclones. This can be due to a number of factors, including blasts of dry, stable air from the Saharan desert, strong upper-level westerly winds, or a lack of the necessary atmospheric “spin” needed to generate a counterclockwise circulation.
How far did Irma go in the atmosphere?
For many days Irma had been steered steadily westward across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean islands by a strong ridge in the mid to upper atmosphere (10k to 30k ft AGL) to Irma’s north.
What do the white lines on the Irma ridge mean?
White lines with arrows indicate direction of steering, image indicates forward speed. Note Irma’s location over the north coast of Cuba, between the Bermuda ridge to the east and a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico. The mid-upper trough between these ridges steered Irma to the northwest, then north.
Where did storm surge flooding occur?
In addition to the long periods of heavy rain and strong winds, storm surge flooding also occurred well away from the storm center, including the Jacksonville area, where strong and persistent onshore winds had been occurring for days before Irma’s center made its closest approach.
How data helped the forecast
Irma ultimately tracked about 100 miles farther west than some weather models and the National Hurricane Center were predicting days before the storm made landfall. But despite some public discussion about whether the storm’s potential impacts in Florida were overblown, the overall track forecast for Irma was extremely successful.
The importance of satellites
We rely on satellite data to predict the path and intensity of powerful hurricanes like Irma.
Where did Hurricane Irma hit?
It became a tropical storm on August 30 th about 420 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, and quickly attained hurricane status on August 31st while still in the far eastern Atlantic about 650 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Irma continued to gradually strengthen over the next several days as it tracked generally westward across the tropical Atlantic. By the time Hurricane Irma struck Barbuda in the northern Leeward Islands around 2am on Wednesday, September 6 th, it was a Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph winds. Five hours later, the eye of Irma moved over St. Martin, still with 185 mph winds, while the northern eyewall pounded Anguilla. That afternoon, Irma cut a path directly through the British Virgin Islands. After the southern eyewall raked St. Thomas, Puerto Rico was largely spared as the center passed about 45 miles north of San Juan. Hurricane conditions did occur on Puerto Rico’s northeastern coast. Still a Category 5, Irma impacted portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. From Friday evening September 8 th through Saturday afternoon September 9 th, Irma moved along the northern coast of Cuba. Interaction with land caused Irma to weaken from a Category 5 to a Category 3 before it began to pull away from the northern coast of Cuba late Saturday afternoon.
How long before Irma hit Florida?
The Story for South Floridians. South Floridians began paying very close attention to Irma’s forecast up to a week or more prior to landfall in South Florida. From about 5 days before landfall onward, the NHC forecast was consistent on a threat to South Florida.
What counties in Florida have lost power?
In the western half of South Florida, including Collier, Hendry and Glades counties, over 90% of customers lost power and for periods of over a week. Heaviest damage occurred in these western areas where some structural damage was noted, along with flooding damage from storm surge and rainfall.
How much inundation did Marco Island have?
Marco Island had 2-4 feet of inundation, mainly on the south and east parts of the island with inland penetration of less than a half-mile. Naples had 3-4 feet of inundation at the Gulf of Mexico and Naples Bay waterfronts and extending less than a half-mile inland.
What was the highest wind gust recorded in Florida?
The highest wind gust recorded on land in South Florida was 142 mph at a mesonet site near Naples Airport. The highest sustained wind recorded was 112 mph by a spotter on Marco Island.
What category of hurricane hit Naples?
All of the greater Naples area received hurricane force sustained winds, with Category 2 sustained winds likely affecting much of southern and eastern portions of Naples. Along the northern coast of Collier County to the north of Naples, sustained winds likely peaked at Category 1 strength.
How many homes were destroyed in Miami-Dade County?
In Miami-Dade County, while there were no homes that were completely destroyed, there were 1,585 that had damage; including about 1,000 with significant damage. The majority of damage in the county was to trees and fences, with flooding damage in areas impacted by storm surge along the Biscayne Bay shoreline.
Where is Hurricane Irma likely to hit?
Hurricane Irma is likely to impact parts of the Southeast U.S . as an intense hurricane. Its U.S. impact is likely to begin this weekend in Florida. However, there is still uncertainty which areas may be hardest hit. Irma will then likely track into the Southeast U.S. early next week.
What would happen if Irma’s center turns earliest relative to the other scenarios?
If Irma’s center turns earliest relative to the other scenarios, that would raise the threat of an eventual eyewall strike in the Carolinas, with the chance of an eyewall strike along at least parts of Florida’s East Coast, as well.
Who is Jonathan Erdman?
The Federal Alliance for Safe Homes has an excellent site to help. Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter.
Is Hurricane Irma a threat to Florida?
remain uncertain. Hurricane Irma, already the most intense Atlantic hurricane in 12 years, is an increasingly dangerous threat to Florida and parts of the Southeast beginning this weekend. However, we’re still far enough out that key uncertainties remain.
What is the idea behind the Weatherbell model?
“The theory is that, if they can get as much of the atmosphere around the globe correct as possible , then the tropical cyclones in the model will go in the right places and do the right things.”
Did HWRF predict Hurricane Harvey?
Maue said HWRF did a “fantastic” job predicting the rapid intensification of Hurricane Harvey, as it prepared to make landfall last week. That remains one of the most difficult challenges for forecasters — because accurate intensity calls allow individuals, and governments, to decide when evacuations are a must.
